Vladimir Putin has deployed his troops to the border with Ukraine, Impossible request to Europe It seems that he is ready to launch a new offensive to establish his rule over Kiev.
Putin is considered a “historical mission” to reverse Ukraine’s westward drift, even though he himself caused rifts in the annexation of Crimea and fuelling the war in southeastern Ukraine. But his current fast pace raises the question of why he seems to feel that it is time to take action, as if his time is running out.
From Putin’s perspective, he may be concerned about the recent events in Ukraine and believe that everything is going downhill from here on. He tried to force Ukraine to reintegrate into the East Donbass region, which was a poison pill that allowed him to have veto power on the country’s geopolitical road, but failed because the Minsk agreement almost collapsed. His agents may control a small part of southeastern Ukraine, but the rest of the country is far away from his control.
At the same time, Putin was shocked by the growing military cooperation between Ukraine and the West, including military assistance and potential arms sales from the United Kingdom, joint military exercises with NATO countries, the delivery of U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles, and the purchase of unmanned Turkey. He argued that the country is actually becoming an “unofficial” member of NATO, and he claims that one day it can accommodate Western troops and even missiles.
“They concluded that the trend is not going in their direction, they are heading towards geopolitical failure,” said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. The Kremlin’s early “waiting” plan is no longer feasible because Ukrainians have lost patience with their new government and the West has lost interest in Ukraine. The Kremlin “decided that the status quo is unbearable and needs to be changed.”
To this end, Putin said he was Open negotiation It also requested a new treaty with NATO to prevent its expansion by removing troops and infrastructure from countries that joined after 1997, which is not feasible in most parts of Eastern Europe. At the same time, Putin made it clear that he is not in a hurry to obtain “security guarantees” immediately, and openly scorned his potential negotiating partners.
Putin said on Thursday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was running for office on the peace platform, was “under the influence of militants”. Negotiations with his government have basically ceased.
Last month, Russian diplomats leaked communications with French and German diplomats, basically sabotaging opportunities for further negotiations with European powers.
Joe Biden is a politician, Putin may give him more respect, but has made it clear that he does not trust him. Putin said that even his promises may be written in the sand.
“You and I know that even if it is a legal guarantee, it cannot be trusted because the United States easily withdraws from all international agreements in which it has lost interest, while explaining in some way or not giving any explanation,” he told his senior officials on Tuesday Commander.
This allows Putin to choose military power, and he seems ready to use this emergency measure.The Russian president seems to be fascinated by the Ukrainian issue-this summer he published a 6,000 word essay on the subject In his own name, Russian analysts have proposed that solving his plight can determine his timetable as the leader of Russia.
Alexander Baunov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote this month: “It seems that his achievements in Ukraine will be the decisive factor for Putin’s continued tenure beyond 2024.”
Although it is hard to imagine Putin stepping down after 24 years in power, his desire to regain Ukraine as a “brother” country may also be a factor that forces him to stay in office in the future.
“If you haven’t won, maybe now is not the time to step down,” Baonov wrote.
