The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has raised concerns about the flight of Afghans and the recurrence of the European migration crisis in 2016/16, when more than 1 million people fled from the Middle East to the African continent and resettled there.
Thousands of Afghans have left or are desperately flying out of Kabul, fearing that they will return to the strict interpretation of Sharia (Islamic law) imposed during the Taliban rule that ended 20 years ago.
widthIf a large number of people leave Afghanistan?
Fear of harsh Sharia law is not the only reason Afghans may flee. Violence, drought and COVID-19 have left millions of Afghans in need of humanitarian assistance, many of whom may become economic migrants in the coming months.
The Taliban closed key border points, and “very limited” Afghans crossed the border, but the European Union stated that due to the instability under Taliban rule, it is expected that “immigrant pressure will increase” in the long run.
The UN refugee agency stated that since January, more than 550,000 Afghans have been internally displaced due to the deterioration of the security situation. The EU has urged member states to increase the entry quota for Afghans who need protection, especially women and girls.
The United Kingdom stated that in the first year of the new resettlement plan, as many as 5,000 Afghans will be admitted, with priority given to women, girls and ethnic minorities. In the long run, up to 20,000 Afghans will be admitted.
widthThe sickly door of Europe is open as before 2015?
In short, no.
Germany opened its borders to Syrians and others fleeing war and poverty in 2015/16. This move won the praise of German Chancellor Angela Merkel abroad, but it hurt her politically at home.
Merkel plans to step down after the federal election on September 26, so she will no longer be in charge. In any case, she now says that before the EU considers accepting refugees, the safety of refugees in Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries should be guaranteed.
According to UNHCR data in early 2021, Pakistan has hosted 1.4 million Afghan refugees, while Iran has hosted nearly 1 million Afghan refugees. It is estimated that the number of undocumented Afghans in these two countries is much higher.
Other EU countries are determined to avoid a repeat of the 2015/16 season, partly because of concerns that voters will rebound.
Austria proposes to set up “deportation centers” for rejected Afghan immigrants and is one of six EU countries that warned last week against stopping the deportation of Afghans who were denied asylum in the group. Since then, three of the six countries—Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands—have changed course.
The Greek border guards are on alert to avoid a repetition of the large-scale arrival of Syrian immigrants through Turkey in 2015, and recently prevented people from entering its waters, but denied any illegal “return”.
Since the last crisis, the European Union has strengthened its border and coast guard agency Frontex, which now has greater capacity to deter and repatriate illegal immigrants.
widthSick Afghans find a shortcut to Europe?
For Afghans, going to Europe will be more difficult than before.
Iran’s economy was stifled by US sanctions, which encouraged many of the more than 2 million undocumented and more than 800,000 registered Afghan refugees in the Islamic Republic of Iran to return home.
Turkey is already the world’s largest host country for refugees and asylum seekers, with more than 4 million people living there, most of whom are Syrians. To prevent a new wave, it is building a separation wall along most of its border with Iran.
The EU also reached an arrangement with Turkey, which was established after the last crisis, under which Ankara prevented immigrants from flowing into Europe in exchange for cash and other benefits.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday urged European countries to take responsibility for migrants from Afghanistan, adding that Turkey has no intention of becoming a “European immigration shelter in the event of turmoil after the Taliban takes over the country.” “.
The transit route into the European Union through the western Balkans has also become less open than before.
widthWhat is the impact of Europe on the Taliban?
Western countries have not yet formally recognized the Taliban as the ruler of Afghanistan, but recognize the need to provide assistance to this impoverished country, which may be the Taliban’s motivation to prevent exodus.
Merkel said this week that humanitarian assistance will be the key to avoiding a repeat of the 2015 immigration crisis.
The United Kingdom announced that it will double its humanitarian and development assistance to Afghanistan this year to nearly 400 million U.S. dollars. The European Commission hopes to see more support from Afghanistan’s neighbors to keep migrants there.
