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Wisconsin economic activity in May

The number of employees in May was Released Nowadays.

Non-agricultural employment and forecast for March 2021:

figure 1: The non-agricultural employment numbers released in April (blue) and the forecasts of the economic outlook for March 2021 (cyan squares) are all based on 000, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.

The number of non-agricultural employment in May was slightly lower than the DoR forecast for the second quarter, with an annual growth rate of 1.6% (3,600 jobs).The slowdown in employment growth may be caused by a variety of factors, but The argument that increasing unemployment benefits is clearly not the cause As of May (the total number of unemployed is basically unchanged from April to May) has not been verified by any formal research that I know of. As of May, the number of non-agricultural employment in WIsconsin has fallen by 4.6%, while the country has fallen by 5%.

It is important to review the duality of the recovery, especially since employment in high-touch service industries is still more sluggish than commodity production. The recovery in accommodation and food services appears to have stalled (based on seasonally adjusted figures), while manufacturing employment has resumed rising.

figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment data (blue) and accommodation and food service employment data (red, logarithmic scale on the right) are in units of 000, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS and DWD.

Manufacturing employment is 1.1% lower than the February 2020 level, while the accommodation and food service industries are down 16.5% (seasonally adjusted).

Finally, we can look at how other measures track Wisconsin’s economy.

image 3: Wisconsin Coincidence Index (black), non-agricultural employment (blue-green) and civilian employment (red) are all logarithms, 2020M02=0. source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Released on May 26), BLS is calculated by FRED and the author.

All series are on the rise, with non-agricultural employment growing the slowest.Civilian employment based on household surveys rather than institutional surveys showed rapid growth, but More imprecise and requires extensive modificationThe synchronization index is designed to measure overall economic activity and is calibrated against GDP growth, showing that the recovery is faster than non-agricultural employment.

See the low-frequency indicators (GDP, personal income) as of May 26 This post.

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