from november Wisconsin Economic Outlook (Published December 13):
IHS Markit predicts mild recession to begin with
The last quarter of 2022, running until the first half of 2023.
The forecast sees real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2022, followed by
A slight decrease of 0.2% in 2023, with a moderate increase of 1.3%
2024.
The IRS took the biggest hit to employment in Wisconsin’s professional and business services employment, including temporary workers, which is highly cyclically sensitive, as well as construction, based on IHS Markit’s national baseline forecast for a mild recession.
Here are the Department of Revenue’s current forecasts for non-farm payrolls and GDP, plotted against actual conditions (February 2022) economic outlook compare forecasts):
figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payrolls (black), Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast for November (red squares) and February (green squares), both 000, sa Source: BLS via FRED and DoR (various questions).
I’m glad DoR has resumed providing forecasts, because according to Scott Walker’s No Press System (over a period of 4 years).
Here’s Wisconsin’s GDP:
figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (black), Wisconsin Economic Outlook projections for November (red squares) and February (green squares), both in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA from FRED, DoR (various questions).
Like the nation, forecasts have been revised down since February. Suffice to say, to the extent that the country’s prospects have deteriorated since Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine, so has Wisconsin.
Incidentally, it’s worth noting how private employment in Wisconsin has evolved relative to the nation because Senator Ron Johnson observed that “we don’t have enough jobs in Wisconsin.”
image 3: Wisconsin private nonfarm payrolls (blue) and U.S. private nonfarm payrolls (tan) in logarithmic representation, 2020M02=0, SA NBER defined recession peak-to-trough dates in gray. Source: BLS from FRED and authors’ calculations.
