DWD release October figures Nowadays.
This version explains a few points. The following are my main observations.
- Institutional surveys show that total employment and private wage (NFP) employment have a horizontal trend (Figure 1), although there is now an increase.
- Both manufacturing and high-touch service employment have reached the July 2021 Department of Revenue (DoR) forecast.
- Wisconsin lags behind the country in leisure and hospitality (Figure 3).
1. The overall trend:
figure 1: Wisconsin’s non-agricultural employment (black) and private non-agricultural employment (blue-green) released in October in Wisconsin, all are sa, all are diaries, 2020M02=0. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray. Source: BLS, DWD and author’s calculations.
The second is commodity production and high-touch services, with manufacturing and leisure and hotel services as agents.
figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment (blue, left log scale), July 2021 economic outlook forecast, August release (light blue), leisure and hospitality employment (red, right scale), and July 2021 economic outlook Forecast (pink), all in the 000s, seasonally adjusted. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray.Source: BLS, DWD, NBER and Wisconsin State Revenue Service.
Although employment growth in leisure and hotel services has accelerated recently, the recovery still lags behind the country as a whole.
Figure 4: Wisconsin’s September release of leisure and hospitality service employment (black), accommodation and food service subcategory employment (red), and forecasts for the July 2021 economic outlook, released in August (cyan), are all in units of 000. Seasonally adjusted.Source: BLS, DWD and Wisconsin State Revenue Service.
Leisure and hotel services generally lag behind the United States.
image 3: Wisconsin Leisure and Hotel (black) and the United States (blue), sa, logs, 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, DWD and author’s calculations.
I don’t have an updated time series of labor and employment, so I will show the development there tomorrow.
