Angela Merkel’s departure from the political arena after a lapse of 16 years has not only ushered in a new era in Germany, but has also shaken the balance of power in the European Union.
Her successors, Finance Minister Olaf Schultz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have all been touted as candidates to succeed Merkel as European leader.
But analysts warn that given the countless unresolved challenges facing the EU—from internal disputes over the rule of law to the risk of geopolitical marginalization, to the aftermath of Brexit, no one may be able to take on this task immediately.
Merkel was praised for leading the EU through crisis after crisis. She will withdraw from politics when Schultz is formally elected as prime minister in December. Although she is still popular at home and abroad, she is leaving the stage.
During her 16 years in office, she was sometimes slandered for stubbornly insisting on her plan despite the protests of her partners, and at other times she was praised for sticking to the front.
Sebastian Reiche of the IESE Business School in Spain wrote: “Angela Merkel is regarded as one of the most important politicians in a generation and the de facto leader of the European Union. And the’leader of the free world’.”
In a recent survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, 41% of EU citizens said that if they could, they would vote for Merkel. In contrast, only 14% of people chose Macron.
“Sovereign Europe”
However, critics say that Merkel’s “stable” politics, that is, being in a crisis when dealing with Russia or China, and prioritizing economic interests, will only hinder European integration and encourage inertia.
Her exit is likely to open the door for the other half of the European engine, Macron, to slide into the driver’s seat.
Star-studded: France has assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union since January. With the arrival of the Social Democratic-led coalition in Germany, even Germany’s old strict budget motto seems to be shaken, because Europe’s largest economy seems to be bent on spending money to leave epidemic.
Also in terms of national defense, Germany, which once comfortably settled under the “American shield”, is no longer so sure after Donald Trump’s presidency forced the Berlin political class to bury their past certainties and begin to change their mindsets.
To illustrate this change, Schultz’s incoming Social Democrats, ecologist Greens, and the Liberal FDP coalition announced in their agreement that they are “as a mission of a powerful and populous country in the center of Europe. It is to enable, promote and promote this sovereign Europe.”
Merkel’s departure “allows the development of France’s vision of a strong Europe, an ambition that Macron has been advocating since he came to power,” said Alexandre Robine-Borgomano of the Montaigne Institute.
Helen Thompson of the University of Cambridge wrote that Macron was the “leader” for Merkel’s fireplace, although his “self-proclaimed attempt to provide a clear political purpose for the EU has been frustrated so far.”
“Merkelism” is out
During the changing of the guard in Berlin, Macron recently signed a new bilateral cooperation treaty with Draghi.
Even if the ambitious 43-year-old president defended himself that France is not seeking to replace France-Germany relations, the timing of the agreement coincides with the EU realigning itself after Brexit.
However, the French leader faces the 2022 elections, and the extreme right poses a challenge.
Regardless of the outcome, France may be linked to domestic politics for a period of time, stifling its ability to formulate a grand vision for Europe.
Scholz, 63, is an experienced politician who has served in Merkel’s two cabinets. He can seize the opportunity to become Merkel’s heir.
But analysts warn that the times have changed, and more “Merkelism” may not help the new era.
ECFR’s Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin wrote: “Policies of maintaining neutrality and avoiding tough solutions to European dilemmas do not seem to be viable solutions to future challenges.”
“Merkelism is unlikely to live longer than Merkel… because the EU will need a more visionary and courageous Germany to consolidate its foundation and defend its position in the world.”
Whether Schultz, who claimed to be an imitator of Merkel during the German election campaign, will step out of her shadow and take a more radical path is still inconclusive.
Strategies that seem to apply to SPD 🇩🇪-my theme@TheNewEuropeanTomorrow’s column. Figure 1 Scholz makes Merkel diamonds. Pic 2 He uses the female version of Chancellor (Kanzlerin).Send a clear message to everyone… If you want Merkel 2.0, please let me not Raschelt #Kruger #momentum pic.twitter.com/EEsrCTncPJ
— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) September 1, 2021
Since these two major European players may both need time to escape reality, a new stability pole has emerged in the once-indebted South.
“Stagnation”?
Draghi was called “Super Mario” during the time he was in charge of the European Central Bank, bringing stability to a country that was once synonymous with political turmoil and scandal.
Nicoletta Pirozzi of Istituto Affari Internazionali, a think tank based in Rome, told AFP that Draghi “can fill the vacuum left by Angela Merkel as the consensus builder of the European Council”.
“In addition, compared with Merkel’s cautious attitude, he can cooperate with the new governments of France and Germany to inject new vitality into key areas of European integration, from economic governance reforms to foreign policy and national defense.”
But Pirozi pointed out that much depends on whether the 74-year-old Italian leader can successfully implement the EU’s economic recovery plan.
Italy’s presidential election in early 2022 “may completely change the situation” because Draghi has also been touted as “one of the most credible potential candidates” in the campaign.
Before the new leader appeared, some analysts believed that the EU’s prospects were bleak.
“Europe may be heading towards a period of uncertainty and potential weakness,” Reiche warned.
Similarly, Thompson is also very pessimistic.
She wrote: “Due to the competition between the United States and China and the serious internal differences, the EU is living in a world different from that of Ms. Merkel’s administration.”
“The reality clearly states that neither the (new) German Chancellor nor the French government can lead Europe.
“In the absence of leadership, Europe is heading towards one thing-stagnation.”
