Last week, a flatbed railway freight car drove through southwestern Russia. This is an ominous omen, and negotiations need to be conducted to avoid a larger-scale war with Russia. Ukraine.
The aircraft is equipped with Buk-M1, a medium-range surface-to-air missile system that became notorious after launching missiles from territory controlled by Russian agents in eastern Ukraine in 2014 Shoot down a Malaysian airliner, All 298 people on board were killed.
If Russia goes to war Ukraine, It still needs to take some steps: establish fuel supply lines, open field hospitals and deploy air defense systems, such as Buk, to protect heavy weapons and troops near its front lines.
Even if Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin Sit down and talk In order to end this crisis, Russia is getting closer and closer to preparing for a full-scale ground invasion of its neighbors.
“These data lead us to conclude that despite the negotiations between Biden and Putin, the Russian army continues to be concentrated in areas bordering the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities,” wrote the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT). Use social media, railway timetables and other data to reveal the details of Russia’s military buildup on the border.
Putin may still decide not to launch an invasion because he keeps the army near the front line as a bargaining chip. But Russian and Western analysts predict that as Putin seeks to reverse its trajectory toward the West, this military build-up—for the second time this year—foretells that Ukraine will face a series of crises in the future.
“Even if Putin gets something from the West, he promises to have serious talks or discussions-is this enough for Putin?” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis company R. Politik. “We are witnessing the dawn of a new geopolitical adventurism from Russia.”
Although Putin and Biden held talks, the crisis is still deepening.
On Thursday, the Russian Federal Security Service stated that it had intercepted a Ukrainian ship near the Sea of Azov. Crimea Because of disobedience. One day later, Russia closed nearly 70% of the waters of the Sea of Azov, and Ukraine also used the waters for shooting exercises. Then there are escalating speeches.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia and the United States may be repeating the same mistakes. 1962 Cuban Missile CrisisPutin said at a recent meeting that the situation in eastern Ukraine “looks like genocide”, raising concerns that he might find an excuse to send troops into the country.
Taking into account the military threat, the Russian Foreign Ministry released a list of requirements on how to end the crisis on Friday. The most important of these is to allow NATO to “formally deny NATO’s decision.” 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest “Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members.”
Putin has been trying to fight NATO expansion for the past two decades, but the possibility of Ukraine joining a military alliance has always touched deeper emotions and partly prompted him to order Annexation of Crimea It also provoked a war in eastern Ukraine, killing more than 14,000 people.
“I tell them: please don’t touch Ukraine, otherwise there will be problems,” Fyodor Lukyanov, an influential Russian foreign policy analyst, said of his discussions with Western colleagues about NATO in 2000. Said when the era expanded. “There is a real red line. Right and wrong… This kind of contact with Ukraine on security and military affairs-here is considered absolutely unacceptable.”
Lukyanov said that Putin believes that his “responsibility as president” is not to leave the “Ukraine problem”—that is, its trajectory toward the West—to the next Russian leader.
The United States tried to convince Russia that Ukraine would not join the alliance in the short term, but Moscow requested a more formal statement on Friday. NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said within hours of requesting disclosure that this is impossible. “The relationship between NATO and Ukraine will be decided by the 30 NATO allies and Ukraine — no one else,” he said at a press conference with the new German Chancellor. Olaf Schultz.
In Ukraine, support for joining NATO has risen sharply in recent years as the country seeks protection from an increasingly aggressive Russia. For the countries on the east wing of NATO, allowing Russia to dominate NATO’s policy towards Ukraine is seen as a first step towards recognizing Russia’s sphere of influence.
“History shows that the promise of neutrality by Ukraine or any other country in the region did not weaken Putin’s appetite; instead, they feed it,” wrote Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Published an article Foreign affairs on Friday. “The best way to deal with such ultimatums is to ignore them completely.”
Some people doubt whether Russia really wants to reach any agreement. Analysts pointed out that although Moscow has assembled its forces for several months, Russian diplomats did not prepare any official documents until last week, and have not even made the country’s requirements. The idea of gathering nearly 100,000 soldiers within striking distance of the Ukrainian border just to hold talks with Biden (the United States has stated that Russia may increase this number to 175,000 by the end of January), in the eyes of Western observers It’s overkill.
This brings us back to Buk, which, as pointed out by CIT, is roughly painted with its numbers to prevent identification. Russia adopted a similar strategy during its secret invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
The clock is ticking. Putin can retreat, but it would be embarrassing to do so without a solid victory.Russia’s request seems impossible to the West: “Putin believes that if Biden wants, he can move the mountain, he can persuade his allies and persuade Kiev [to make concessions],” Starovaya said. “This issue may cause Putin to demand the impossible and push the stakes so high that everything ends in war. “
