VoltFour weeks have passed European Commission A package of proposals was proposed to simplify the application of the Brexit rules in Northern Ireland. There have been many rounds of negotiations since then, and the chief negotiators of the two sides will meet for the fourth time this Friday. But the signs do not point to an agreement, but to a storm. It’s not just about fishing rights, like the recent situation between Britain and France, but about the details. Brussels is preparing to let London live up to its threats and to suspend the Northern Ireland Protocol in whole or in part in the Brexit agreement. The European Commission is preparing retaliatory measures-member states are preparing to impose tariffs on British goods.
This became clear when their ambassador consulted with European negotiators on Wednesday. So far, the negotiations have been “very disappointing” and the situation is “very serious”-then the vice chairman of the committee, Maroš Šefčovič, was quoted as saying.
A clear answer?
Despite some convergence on the technical level, David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, put everything under one reservation: renegotiating the protocol on the special status of Northern Ireland and abolishing the European Court of Justice’s status as a mediator. The British government has already put forward this request in an “order document” in July. I She was immediately rejected. Because Northern Ireland can only participate in the internal market of goods if it accepts the uniform legislation and legal decisions of all member states.
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During the debate, the French EU ambassador made it clear that the renegotiation of the protocol is impossible. If the UK wants to suspend key provisions, especially customs controls, the EU will have to protect its internal market. Many states joined and asked the committee to develop specific options to respond. The German ambassador pointed out that the withdrawal treaty regulating the special status of Northern Ireland is a prerequisite for the two parties to reach a trade agreement at the end of last year.
Other ambassadors believe that the EU must react decisively-also to signal to other trading partners that they should not be fooled. An EU diplomat then summarized the discussion as follows: “Everyone agreed that such arbitrary and unreasonable actions by the United Kingdom will receive a clear response.”
There are many options in the EU
The translation is: EU countries are preparing to suspend all or part of the trade agreement. How far you can go depends on the British. Is London just a symbolic act of pleasing Brexit at home? Or does the government question the essence of the protocol, which is contained in Articles 5 to 7? In principle, if the application of the Protocol leads to “serious and possibly continuing economic, social or environmental difficulties or changes in trade flows”, unilateral protective measures are permitted under Article 16. In return, the affected parties can take “appropriate compensation measures”; they must be proportionate.
The EU has many options. It can resume the infringement procedure against London, which was launched earlier this year after the British government unilaterally extended the transitional clause to ease the situation. In addition, when handling British trucks at EU ports, they can be inspected more frequently and in more detail-what one diplomat called a “rule-based duty.” This will further affect the kingdom’s already disrupted supply chain, which will have an impact on Christmas business.
If the trade agreement is suspended, British goods will be subject to tariffs applicable to any ordinary third country. However, this will not take effect immediately. It will take nine to twelve months to complete the suspension. Alternatively, the European Union can restrict data transfers in cooperation with the Kingdom or the judiciary.
In any case, Brussels does not want to be seen as the reason for the next upgrade. Shevcovic himself also urged the ambassadors to be cautious in communication. A senior EU official said on Thursday that the British order document was “an extremely important step in the wrong direction.” It is now awaiting correction and there is no deadline for negotiations. When Frost appeared in the House of Lords on Wednesday, he complained that Brussels was planning “disproportionate” measures, but at the same time asserted that the talks would last “just a few weeks.” He will give up only if there is no other way. “Of course we haven’t reached this point yet.”
