National Assembly of the Republika Srpska (half of Serbia in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina) Last Friday voted to withdraw their autonomous entities from Bosnia’s armed forces, justice and taxation systemThe Parliament stated that the RS government should propose laws within six months to regulate these matters at the substantive level.
This move plunged the country into what may be the worst crisis since the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the war between Bosnians (Bosnian Muslims), Croats and Serbs in 1995.
The proposal has no direct legal effect and is the first step towards a split. It was passed with 49 votes of 83 members. The largest opposition party did not vote, but many people may vote against it anyway.
There is no doubt that Milorad Dodik, the Serbian strongman in the three presidencies of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the most outspoken supporter of the secession of Bosnia and Herzegovina, will not build a team capable of launching war. Serb army, simply because of lack of funds. Moreover, the war will harm his commercial interests. His patrons in Belgrade and Moscow did not need war.
The real threat is RS’s attempt to mess up the financing of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The International Monetary Fund is particularly concerned about the possible withdrawal of RS entities from the Indirect Taxation Agency (ITA) of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
According to the International Monetary Fund, ITA is one of the most successful institutions in Bosnia, and the indirect taxes collected by this institution are the single most important source of income for multiple governments in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
As mentioned earlier, the opposition forces in RS have the same views as Dodik. Mirko Sarovic, the leader of the Serbian Democratic Party founded by war criminal Radovan Karadzic, said that it is legal to demand more power, but it is unreasonable to risk a conflict with NATO.
The political infighting in the Republika Srpska is clearly about power rather than principles, and Dodik is the one who manages the dynamics.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is one of Dodik’s patrons and he can stay away temporarily Serbia uses large-scale protests against lithium mining as an excuse.
Russia, as another patron of RS, undoubtedly supports Dodik. When the negotiations on Ukraine entered a critical stage, Vladimir Putin could use Bosnia and Herzegovina as a bargaining chip to show the West that he can destabilize the Western Balkans at any time without using natural gas.
Putin’s strategy is to keep non-EU member states in the region outside the bloc, and in most cases, he has a different approach.
Serbia is controlled by energy, Montenegro is influenced by the Orthodox Church.In Bosnia and Herzegovina, it’s Dodik, or Who will succeed him, Who is blocking any ambitions of the European Union. North Macedonia is a special case. It restrains itself because the country has little interest in resolving bilateral issues with neighboring EU member Bulgaria.
In Albania, the Russians have almost no influence, but the United States, which many people consider to dominate there, is pushing to join the European Union every day, often concealing the obvious problems of the rule of law and democracy.
The latest developments in Bosnia indicate the failure of the Western strategy. The West regards the stability provided by leaders such as Serbia’s Vucic or Montenegro’s Zhukanovic as a priority.
However, this kind of “stabilization” has too many drawbacks, one of which is economic and social stagnation, which can lead to instability and open the door to other geopolitical participants.
Another disadvantage of a stable regime is that it creates puppets like Dodik, which sometimes escape control.
For more than 20 years, stability politics has been the dominant feature of US and EU politics in the region, but it was wrong and failed. It mainly created despotism and opened the door to external influences.
Rear Many educated young people have left the area, Is there room for democratization and Europeanization in the Western Balkans? The author of this newsletter is skeptical.
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Summary
The new German government passed a supplementary budget on Monday to increase its climate and transformation funds Inject 60 billion euros into debt financing to allow more investment to shift to a green economy, The official said. The budget compromise made Germany’s new finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner focus on restoring debt brake rules from 2023, and still allow more public investment to reduce carbon emissions in Europe’s largest economy.
at the same time, The new German Minister of Transport Volk Wiesing raised a question mark Regarding the lag in the country’s transition to clean transportation. In view of the vastly different approaches to reducing emissions in the sector, the three parties preparing to form a new government proposed a joint agreement that has been widely criticized for the lack of a coherent transportation sector strategy.
“Brain drain” has become a tragedy in the Western BalkansMany young people have dreams of living and working abroad. In the region, this expression reflects the way in which thousands of young people, usually young people, go to EU countries for further studies or work. But Janos Ammann, economics editor at EURACTIV.com, doesn’t think this is necessarily a bad thing.
European Commission and Member States need Reduce the administrative burden on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the food sector, According to conservative EU member of Parliament Marlene Mortler.
Pay close attention, watch out, watch out…
- The President of Slovenia and the incoming French President have proposed a roadmap for the European semester of 2022
- Ministers will approve a joint statement on the EU’s 2022 legislative priorities in the General Committee
- The European Economic Community and the Chinese delegation participated in the 18th meeting of the China-EU Roundtable
- Commissioner Margaritis Schinas introduced the revision of the Schengen border law
The opinions are those of the author.
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]
