Orhan Dragaš writes that the “European approach” in the Balkans has led to excessive time wasting in achieving the strategic goal of incorporating the region into the Western structure, so the new US administration will now try to make up for this.
Dr. Orhan Dragaš from the Institute of International Security is the author of the book “The Two Faces of Globalization-Truth and Deception”.
“The United States will do its best to help you in every way to become a part of Europe. There is no limit to the amount of aid.”
This is what Colin Powell said to Serbia and Montenegro on April 2, 2003. Three weeks after the assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Đinđić, the then Secretary of State suddenly visited Belgrade.
Looking back and looking forward to the US policy towards the Balkans is a timely tribute to Colin Powell. But there is also interesting news.
The reorganization of the key personnel of the US diplomatic team in charge of the Balkans is underway.
New ambassadors are arriving in Belgrade, Pristina, Sarajevo, and possibly Podgorica. They were sent from Washington by the newly appointed Balkan “boss” Gabriel Escobar by the State Department. . These few people have more than 100 years of combined experience in the Balkans.
We should not say that the United States “returned to the Balkans” not only because of the outdated wording, but also because it is incorrect.
If the United States has not really entered the region in recent years, Croatia will not become a member of the European Union, and today the entire Western Balkans (except Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) will not join NATO.
North Macedonia will use its old, shorter name, but will still be quarantined and prevent any integration. Montenegro will be shaken by internal conflicts, not for one year, but at least ten years. Serbia and Kosovo will stay away from any dialogue, in fact they are confronting each other.
The new American team in the Balkans will undoubtedly take on the task of speeding up the completion of some unfinished tasks.
In the past, it was left to the European Union, and the United States tried to leave the “calm” of the Balkan post-conflict period to its “soft power” owners who were most interested in it.
However, the European approach leads to an excessive waste of time and therefore obscures a goal that should be kept clear until it is finally achieved, and the goal of including the entire Balkan region in the EU and/or NATO. It is the unconcealed interest of the United States for a long time.
The new US approach in the Balkans will mainly focus on resolving two major crisis areas, namely Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This will be the focus of Belgrade, Christopher Hill, Sarajevo, Michael Murphy and Pristina’s new ambassador, Jeffrey Hovinier, and their Washington colleague Gabriel Escobar.
Their expertise is excellent, but certainly not enough to get the job done. The new US policy needs to be creative and authoritative enough to bring about progress. What does this mean in practice?
Although each of them has their own personal experience of war or post-war years in the Balkans, the new diplomatic team should not be expected to stick to the old model. Christopher Hill was in Rambouillet, a senior diplomat during the Kosovo War in 1999, but he would not bring Rambouillet to his new job in Belgrade.
The interests of the United States are the same as they were 20 years ago, but there will be other ways to achieve them.
Obviously, the mission of Christopher Hill and the rest of the Balkan team will be a combination of decisive diplomacy, promoted by personal sanctions on local politicians and key figures, which is an important part of Biden’s foreign policy.
After Afghanistan, the United States will not be able to describe itself as the “world police”, but to a large extent, it does play the role of the world’s prosecutor.
However, after Afghanistan, it is difficult to rely on NATO in this new policy.
Montenegro is a good example. Even before the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, NATO’s cohesion was weakened, because the arrival of the new Podgorica government also marked Russia’s deep penetration of the affairs of this NATO member state. There was no response, except for occasional non-personal statements.
This is why Gabriel Escobar has recently stated very publicly that the United States (and therefore not NATO) has various diplomatic and political mechanisms to oppose Russia’s influence in Montenegro (and Serbia’s destructive actions), mentioning personal sanctions and Political isolation.
With a new team in the Balkans, the United States will act alone in its own name. If it needs help in anything, it will work in the European Union (Belgrade-Pristina Negotiations), NATO (Montenegro) or specific Find it among Western allies, for example, when it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany.
Until it is completed, it may not leave the “work” to anyone else, as Colin Powell said.
