Geopolitical experts said at an online conference organized by EURACTIV.bg this week that the European Union had lost the battle in the Balkans, where Russia and China offered bonuses without demanding reforms.
The “Balkan Geopolitics” conference was held on Tuesday (July 13). The American political scientist George Friedman (founder of Stratfor.com and GeopoliticalFutures.com) and the former Bulgarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and founder of the organization Solomon Passy (Solomon Passy) attended the meeting. The Bulgarian Atlantic Club and many stakeholders in the region.
Friedman believes that countries have reasons not to trust each other, and any action that benefits one country will be regarded as a threat by other countries. He believes that this is why the outside world must either cooperate with the entire Balkans or not with any one country.
However, Friedman warned that there should be low expectations about what the Balkans can achieve, how much their culture can change, and how long it will take. He insisted that Washington, the United States will not intervene in the region as it did before.
Balkan Alliance?
Passy believes that the solution for the Balkans is the joint efforts of all countries, and even calls for the establishment of a “Balkan Alliance.” In his words, it can operate under the umbrella of the EU and NATO, which may mean unity in different areas-economy, National defense, sports, culture.
For example, Passy mentioned Bulgaria’s hypothetical public tender for a telecommunications business launched in a market of seven million people. He believes that similar tenders for the entire Balkan region with a population of 55 million would be more attractive.
“Similarly, we can have a common energy market, and we can send common nominations to participate in Eurovision or UEFA football matches. (…) Or how about the joint Balkan space program,” Passy said. He even suggested that all countries in the region subscribe to the same time zone.
He acknowledged that such an alliance faces minor challenges and mentioned Bulgaria’s veto power at the beginning of the negotiations for North Macedonia’s accession to the EU. However, according to him, this dispute can be resolved within a few months.
As another challenge, Passy cited the Russian spy center in the Serbian city of Nice, which, in his words, did not seem to disturb the European Union. He further emphasized that Serbia is currently the Achilles’ heel of the region.
The former diplomat explained that the influence of Russia and China is obvious, but in the long run, China’s influence is more important. According to Passy, the Three Seas Initiative should involve Serbia before Belgrade joins the European Union and NATO.
Blackmail and mistrust
Mira Milošević, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of Elcano in Spain, emphasized the view that the European Union had failed in the Balkan war. She said that the Balkan countries do not trust each other, but added that they also do not trust big powers.
“For example, Kosovo or Albania saw this savior in the United States. Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (in parts) saw more saviors in Russia and even China,” she said.
In her words, Serbia is using arguments to blackmail the big powers-if you don’t want to help us, we have a “B” plan, which means turning to other foreign powers “They don’t ask me to do anything special just to support me” .
Despite this, she said that the EU is the only strategic participant that can have a serious impact on the region, and expressed the hope that Slovenia’s current EU presidency can revive its accession process.
She said Russia may be a more compelling role in the Balkans, but China is even more important. She said that Russia’s presence in the region is purely historical, but China, with its economic strength and long-term strategy, poses a more severe challenge to Europe’s interests in the Balkans.
Milosevic warned that their EU did not see that “they are not as attractive as they were 35 years ago. The EU has lost its credibility, and because of the coronavirus, they have lost more credibility”, she said, referring to It is the EU’s inability to provide vaccines to the population in this region.
Would anyone do it like Sanad?
Nemanja Todorović Štiplija, founder of the Belgrade Center for Contemporary European Politics, reviewed Croatia’s experience in joining the European Union.
When joining the negotiations, Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader was considered the most successful Balkan leader to break the past until he resigned in 2009, and then was jailed and sentenced for corruption on multiple charges.
“A few years later, we saw that he was one of the most corrupt politicians in the Balkans. When he carried out all the reforms in Croatia, he realized that he would be the first to be arrested by the anti-corruption police he established. After that, no politician in the Western Balkans will end anti-corruption, organized crime, or reforms in areas related to the judicial system,” Todorovich Stipulia said.
According to him, the current leaders of the Western Balkans are not interested in the EU at all, because they are doing well without the EU.
He said that Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban’s influence in the Balkans is huge, especially in the media sector, because the region “likes the Orban system and Serbia is a leader in copying this model”. It means that there is no rule of law and Todorović Štiplija said that there is no free media.
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]
