After New Caledonia’s third referendum on independence from France, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that “France is more beautiful because New Caledonia Decided to stay. “
The vote in the December 12 referendum-allegedly the end of a 30-year preparation and negotiation process- 96.5% oppose independence.
Macron’s center-right Republican rival Valérie Pécresse praised the vote as a “significant choice” left, and the emerging far-right candidate Eric Zemmour (Eric Zemmour) It means that the decision is final.
However, the future of New Caledonia as a French territory is far from certain, and it is possible to resume the violence that destroyed New Caledonia.
Only one party participates in the vote, and the result is completely predictable. Only 43.9% of eligible voters voted, compared with 86% in the last referendum.
Most of the abstainers are indigenous Kanaks. Since the 1980s, they have been instigating the establishment of independent states following the example of Melanesians from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.
Until the last few months, the Kanaks were willing to participate in the negotiation process, and then the delta variant of Covid-19 arrived in early September and quickly infected more than 12,000 people and caused 280 deaths, of which about 60% were Kanaks and Other Pacific Islanders.
Many Kanak communities are caught in a traditional mourning ceremony that can take up to a yearIn addition, the blockade restricts the campaigning activities of Kanak parties, which usually rely on village meetings and leaders’ visits.
The Kanak Party called on Macron to postpone the referendum, but was rejected. The last-minute court delay appeal also failed. So the Karnak Alliance called for a boycott of the referendum.
“It’s not over yet. Those who say it’s over misread the power of resistance,” said Nick McClellan, a senior commentator on Australia’s Pacific affairs.
Almost all Kanaks not only heeded their party’s call to “not participate,” they also did so peacefully. Paris sent an additional 2,000 military police and 30 armored vehicles to maintain safety-they don’t need it.
A key question now is whether the electoral rolls in any future referendums or local government elections will be open to new immigrants from New Caledonia. So far, only Kanaks and long-established settlers have been allowed to vote.
Mathias Chauchat, a professor of public law at the University of New Caledonia in Nouméa, stated that opening up voting to all residents of New Caledonia would be a “recolonization” and eventually an end to Cana The independent dream of the Krenner.
“In essence, opening the electoral roll will empower whites. It will return to the colony as before, with the French in power, while the Kanaks are the indigenous minority. They will be kept on the margins of the custom while keeping saying Their identities have been recognized. This will be an unnamed apartheid system.”
“The situation is explosive because the Kanaks will never accept this kind of recolonization,” Chauchat added. “We are on the powder keg. It only needs a spark to explode.”
As far as they are concerned, the seven pro-independence parties of the Kanaks stated that the French government’s “stubbornness” undermined the dialogue and that the French government “cannot reconcile its geostrategic interests in the Pacific with new obligations for decolonization”. Caledonia. “.
New Caledonia’s regional neighbors rejected the referendum results. Melanesian Pioneer Group-representing Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji- Issue a statement announcing that the result is “invalid Because the Kanaki indigenous people’do not participate’. “
The Pacific Islands Forum-a broader regional organization-took note of the boycott and stated that “citizen participation is an integral part of any democracy and is crucial to the interpretation and influence of Sunday’s polls.”
Although some strategists are worried France Going out and leaving a very poor micro-state open to China’s influence is worth considering what kind of independence the Kanak people propose.
Chauchat said that the Caledonian Alliance, one of the main political parties in Karnak, has been considering the “free association” link between the Cook Islands and New Zealand. Wellington, after consulting with the Cook Islands government, is responsible for managing the island’s defense and foreign policy. This small country has membership in many international institutions, but no United Nations seats.
Adrian Mukel, a historian at Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, said that another Karnak party, UNI-Palika, also mentioned the idea of a partnership or alliance with France in its manifesto.
“They tried to discuss in more detail what this might look like before the final referendum, but Paris and the’loyalists’ actively refused to participate, which shows that such discussions can only be conducted after voting for independence, and nothing can go before that. Discuss,” Mukel said.
“I think their concern is that any substantial ideas about the independence of the association may make the’yes’ vote more attractive.”
Since the vote, French Overseas Territories Minister Sébastien Lecornu has called for the completion of the proposal on the permanent status of New Caledonia in France within 18 months. The Kanak party stated that they will wait until the French election next year before resuming dialogue with Paris.
In any case, before this they were almost unattractive. Since Macron is now fighting for re-election between the right and the extreme right in the middle, election considerations do not allow much flexibility in considering the future of New Caledonia.
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Hamish McDonald is a former foreign editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and a regional editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review, and a founding researcher of the Australian Institute of International Affairs.
