The first-hand policy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan led to a 56% depreciation of the lira this year and pushed up the cost of living for ordinary Turks. Despite this, Erdogan’s party still receives more support than any other party and can count on the almost full support of the media mainly owned by his supporters.
Turkish laborer Hasan Sarikaya said he has no job, no money, and no hope for a better future, while the leader he has supported for many years, Erdogan, is still in power.
Like many people in Konya, an industrial city in the conservative heartland of Turkey, during the early economic boom of Erdogan’s era, Sarikaya was also hit by the sharp fall in lira, increased inflation and business recession.
Their misfortune may cause trouble for Erdogan, as the economic pain has eroded support for Turkey’s most successful modern politician and will turn the next election to be held in mid-2023 into his 20-year rule. The most severe test.
“I’m looking for a job and I can’t pay my debts… There is no solution. People are fed up now,” 31-year-old Sarikaya said on a busy Konya street. “I have voted (support Erdogan) for many years… now, he will not be able to save himself.”
Erdogan’s enduring appeal in more than a dozen national and local elections is based on a record of economic growth and religiously conservative values that have filled the enthusiasm of millions of Muslim Turks who have long felt ignored by secular elites.
Konya is the hometown of the respected Sufi mystery poet Rumi in the 13th century. It has always been the bastion of his AK Party (AKP), transforming from an agricultural center to an industrial power under his rule.
Erdogan won 75% of Konya’s votes in the 2018 presidential election, and the AKP’s approval rating is higher than all provinces except one of Turkey’s 81 provinces. This dominance is now being threatened by a series of unprecedented challenges.
Other Konya residents who spoke with Reuters, including industrial workers, farmers and students, also echoed Sarikaya’s lament over rising prices and declining employment opportunities.
Although many people said they would stick to Erdogan’s party in the next election, last year’s national survey showed that the disillusionment of Sarikaya was part of a broader trend, with opposition parties ahead of the AKP and its parliamentary ally, the nationalist MHP. .
Sinan Urgen, director of the Istanbul Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Research, said: “In the past, we have never seen such a low approval rate.” “More and more people believe that political change will take place in 2023.”
widthInner-takes-all
Erdogan has ruled Turkey since 2003, first as prime minister and later as president. Three years ago, he gained broader powers during his new executive presidency. Critics say this creates a highly centralized system that cannot respond to Turkey’s economic, political, and security challenges.
Power was lost from institutions and ministries to Ankara’s sprawling presidential palace. Since 2019, Erdogan has fired three central bank governors and three bank decision makers in October.
Erdogan said that the central bank remained independent, but it succumbed to his call to lower interest rates well below inflation, resulting in a 56% depreciation of the lira this year and pushing up the cost of living for ordinary Turks.
The president did not respond to requests for comment on the economic impact of government policies and support for Erdogan.
His opponents, energized by the surge in support, are attacking, accusing him of pushing Turkey into poverty.
Erdogan’s problems are compounded by the presidential system he advocates, which requires an absolute majority of votes in the ballot box and rejects candidates’ choice to establish alliances to meet the threshold.
Opinion polls show that three potential competitors-the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, all from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), and the leaders of the nationalist IYI party-will all be defeated in a straight game he.
“This is a’winner takes all’ system-it increases the risk when his political reputation is declining,” Urgen said.
‘One Sudan in Autumn
Erdogan will also face the two separate parties established by his founding members of the Justice and Development Party for the first time in the election.
One is the Future Party led by former Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, and the other is led by Erdogan’s former ally Ali Babakan. Both provide discouraged AKP voters with the opportunity to reject Erdogan without giving up his conservative values.
“If voters have to make a choice and be right-wing oriented, they will find another right-wing party closer to them,” said Hassan Ekic, chairman of the local Gleček party in Konya.
Although the country’s support rate for the new party is still in the low single digits, even slight fluctuations to them may cause enough damage to Erdogan to reverse the situation.
Soner Cagaptay, Director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “The development of Turkey since the first economic crisis under Erdogan in 2018… All these show that Erdogan was a Sudanese in the fall of his career. .”.
The Presidential Palace rejected concerns about the 67-year-old leader’s health, which also attracted attention. Erdogan is known as a fiery orator who has sometimes looked tired and pale in the past year, walked awkwardly, and dozed off in front of the camera.
In a country where half of the population is 31 years of age or younger, many people do not know other leaders. Erdogan said that the young Turk should be grateful for the progress his country has made under his leadership, but he has been working hard to win the support of most young people.
Despite this, Erdogan’s party still receives more support than any other party and can count on the almost full support of the media mainly owned by his supporters.
His rule witnessed the construction boom and the improvement of medical services, and religious Turks welcomed him to end the restrictions on wearing headscarves.
His opponent’s loose alliance lacks an agreed policy platform and has yet to elect a presidential candidate.
But Erdogan’s uncertain prospects are spreading to the wider world, where he has been trying to repair tensions with some of Turkey’s allies and competitors.
Retired ambassador Unal Cevikoz said that Egypt and Israel have long-standing differences with Erdogan and are not in a hurry to reconcile with him.
“People feel that the wind of change is blowing, and everyone is waiting for the government to change,” he said.
