In an exclusive interview, Ilian Vassilev, the former Bulgarian ambassador to Russia, who later became an entrepreneur and analyst, discussed the stakes surrounding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and provided useful information in the European Commission’s certification of controversial natural gas projects. opinion.
Ilian Vassilev is chairman of the board, alternatives and analysis, And the managing partner of Innovative Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. He talked with Krassen Nikolov, Editor-in-Chief of EURACTIV Bulgaria.
Is Russia taking advantage of the Nord Stream 2 project? In the EU Hit by energy Price crisis?
Since its concept was born, Russia has been using Nord Stream 2 as a political weapon long before its certification and commissioning. The way the certification process is ongoing means that it is very likely that Russian natural gas will not be supplied via Beixi 2 this winter. Given Gazprom’s current level of natural gas storage in Europe, this means that after February, or even before that, low temperature may be required to reduce gas consumption, especially for industrial consumers. The problem is that even if Russia wants it, it will not be able to solve the problem, because balancing peak consumption in Europe depends on the natural gas already stored there, rather than the current supply level covering basic consumption.
Why did Germany build this pipeline First and Why not in the EU Object to this project?
There are many reasons for Berlin’s decision to participate in Moscow’s plan to put pressure on Ukraine. There are business reasons. Let us not ignore that Germany is becoming Russia’s natural gas broker, with annual revenues that may exceed 2 billion euros. There are also historical reasons-the Kremlin always uses the notorious German guilt in emergency situations. In addition, the classic assumptions of German foreign policy-Eastern policy and the need for direct and privileged access to Russian raw materials and energy.In addition, climate policy and Energy transition – Self-mission to lead Europe and the world to another revolution. There is no nuclear energy, but renewable energy, focusing on natural gas, but not counting risks. In the original design, the forced application of wind energy was to make Europe more independent of Russia. It depends on the situation-in the energy war with Russia, wind energy is by no means a point of contention. Finally, in President Biden’s government, as well as in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France, supporters of climate policy are pushing for cooperation with Russia because they want Russia to shoulder its due responsibilities. This is an absurd paradox. Moscow wields a saber, threatening a gas shortage. If, God bless, something happens in Ukraine, don’t imagine Germany will come to the rescue. This split the European Union and NATO. The question of who wins has a clear answer.
what Under this circumstance, what signal does the EU send to Ukraine?
Intent and behavior are quite different. The European Union can implement European regulations at the European Commission level to prevent Gazprom from operating Nord Stream-2 at full capacity. But sooner or later, loopholes will be discovered. The loss of transit income from Ukraine cannot be compensated by the European Union, but there are practical things that can be done, especially in the removal of Gazprom’s inheritance privileges in the European market and seeking reciprocity. I don’t think that under the current circumstances, assistance for green transformation is the most relevant form of support. The funds used for the transition are unlikely to heat Ukrainian households. Russia does not allow Ukraine to transit oil, gas, or even coal from Central Asia. It is launching a full-scale war, and Gazprom has complete freedom to transfer its energy resources through Ukraine and any EU country.
The EU can and must force Gazprom to supply natural gas to the borders of Russia and Ukraine, and European companies can then store this gas in Ukraine’s natural gas storage facilities, making it part of the EU’s strategic natural gas reserves. Unlike Gazprom’s supply of Gazprom gas to the European border and its natural gas transactions in the European Union by storing it in the now-operated European gas center, European companies can request a reciprocal right to receive natural gas at the Russian border and then proceed with it. Handle and manage risks related to supply, storage, and transportation. Very important for Ukraine is the release of Gazprom’s natural gas transportation capacity, which will prevent competitors from entering Ukraine from the north through Poland and from the south through Bulgaria. I am specifically referring to the capacity of the Trans-Balkan Gas Pipeline through Bulgaria, which is currently blocked by TurkStream but can be used to supply natural gas from the Southern Gas Corridor.
You see the EU trying Control The current energy crisis, orPlanning to avoid it in the future?
Unfortunately, this is not the case. The European Commission promised to approve state aid and encourage countries to use available funds, including funds accumulated from emission allowances, compensation and energy aid. The problem is that when there is no physical gas, no matter how much money you have, there is no solution.
The rest is to manage demand, but this means restricting industrial consumption, which will lead to loss of GDP, loss of income, and almost means survival in the case of energy shortages. It is no coincidence that the countries with the lowest natural gas reserves — Germany and Austria — conducted “survival” exercises during power outages. The political leaders of both countries have bet on Gazprom, but both made mistakes.
The list of “what to do” is long, but I just want to point out that it should consider the integration of the US and European gas markets, because the EU only has 15% of its own gas production, and the European gas hub will suffer whenever the global gas market catches a cold. Pneumonia will occur. Facing the high turbulence in the global natural gas market, they have no local anchor at all. If Washington does not have strategic considerations, the US LNG will flow to Asia and China, and the EU will continue to rely on the Kremlin.
TurkFlowing through Bulgaria is a geopolitical issue similar to North Stream 2, but its political significance seems to be underestimated Compared with Beixi 2? Why?
There are many reasons.Although the sanctions on Turkey’s Stream-2 CAATSA with Bureau of Economic and Social Services, The U.S. government has almost forgotten the sanctions on TurkStream, firstly because the pipeline has been built across the Black Sea, secondly because the U.S.-Turkey relationship agenda is already busy, and thirdly because a complicated plan involves politicians from Saudi Arabia. And Russia. Who provided shelter for TurkStream-2 during construction. Washington has also played a role in Bulgaria’s traditional low priorities and concerns, so it has ensured Gazprom’s close-to-monopoly market position in the so-called Balkan streams. [Former PM Boyko] Borisov managed to get the support of Merkel and some Macron-keeping a low profile. Borisov may also be very worried that Putin made it clear that he wanted Nanxi’s “missing” money.
The strange thing is that TurkStream-2 is now running at full capacity, but Nord Stream-2 is not: Borisov handed over to the Kremlin what Merkel had failed to do.
If Ukraine’s political importance as an important transit country is further weakened, will this make Russia more aggressive in the surrounding areas of Donbass and Crimea?
really. After all, reliance on Ukraine’s transit is a key deterrent to Putin. Whenever Putin wants to make concessions to the West for blackmail, the continuing threat of invading Ukraine will be activated. I am not sure if he will decide to attack Ukraine, because it is too risky for him personally. He can take two actions-either invade eastern Ukraine, which is a risky adventure, and then annex Russia-controlled areas into Russia, or annex/incorporate Belarus. If Ukraine is attacked, Germany is unlikely to help Ukraine. And I don’t believe that Germany will do this for any other country in Eastern Europe.
How did the energy crisis come Affect the growing tension in the Black Sea region?
Directly, because the main direction of Russia’s attack is to connect Crimea by land and integrate Donbas and Lugansk, the so-called “New Russia” project. For this reason, the Black Sea must be under complete control, so Russia is dissatisfied with the existence of NATO ships. There are also many publications claiming that Russia’s trans-Black Sea gas infrastructure is used to monitor and control the movement of ships and submarines.
In the fringe policy game, Putin has the advantages of his autocratic regime, but also has its drawbacks, because he will never be able to produce an economic development model that can compete with the EU and the United States to ensure the well-being and safety of Russian citizens. The standard of living is declining if Ukraine has been invaded and will not be able to hide the new 200 or 300 coffins.
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]
