After the local elections in North Macedonia, the Balkan country found itself without a prime minister, most municipalities fell into the hands of the opposition, and it was possible to hold elections early-all of which could affect its application to join the European Union.
The second round of local elections was held on Sunday (October 31). The preliminary results showed that most of the municipalities and capitals of Skopje were handed over to opposition parties, including the nationalist center-right VMRO-DPMNE.
Zoran Zayev, the prime minister of the Social Democratic Party (SDSM) who accepted the defeat, announced his resignation.
“The responsibility for this outcome is mine, and I will resign from my post as prime minister and leader of the Social Democratic Union,” he told reporters at the party headquarters on Sunday night.
So what will happen now?
Skopje is considered the most important mayor’s seat in the country and will welcome the first female mayor Danela Arsovska. She ran for the election as an independent candidate, but received strong support from VMRO-DPMNE.
Her candidacy was overshadowed by the accusation that she had dual citizenship in Macedonia and Bulgaria, which she strongly denies. Despite this, she managed to get more than half of Skopje’s votes. As Bulgaria vetoed the start of Skopje’s EU accession negotiations, relations between North Macedonia and Bulgaria were full of tension.
In a major shift to the right, VMRO-DPMNE appears to be on track to win at least half of the country’s 80 cities, and SDSM’s win rate will be lower than that. 20. In the last local election in 2017, SDSM won 57 games, while VMRO-DPMNE won only 5 games.
What triggered the change?
The issue of North Macedonia’s accession to the European Union is believed to have caused some changes in direction. The opposition took advantage of the deadlock created by Bulgaria’s veto of cultural and language claims to incite nationalism among voters.
NATO membership and the historic name agreement with Greece, won under Zayev’s rule, were not enough to save him.
In recent months, other issues have rocked the outgoing government, including inefficient management of the COVID-19 situation and a catastrophic fire in a hospital in Tetovo in the summer. This, coupled with the economic crisis, can only disappoint voters at best.
An early election is imminent?
Zaev hopes to avoid early elections in Sobranje (national parliament), and hopes that the ruling majority can form a cabinet with another prime minister. But the opposition is unlikely to be satisfied. Hristijan Mickoski, chairman of the winning VMRO-DPMNE, has called for an election.
Mikowski said that Sunday was the first day of a new and better Macedonia. He refused to use the new official name defined in the Prespa Agreement of Northern Macedonia, adding that the government has lost its legitimacy, “the new The reality will appear in the parliament, but the best solution will be to hold parliamentary elections in advance.”
The last national election was held in July 2020, and the new election will not be held until 2024. Everything now depends on the country’s parliament, which, according to the constitution, must vote to accept Zaev’s resignation.
The ruling majority is weak: the alliance of SDSM and DUI, an Albanian political party, has 62 members of parliament, of which 120 are members. The coalition can agree on another candidate for prime minister and form a government without a new vote. But the opposition pressure will be huge, and SDSM does not have a strong candidate to replace Zaev.
Future political turmoil
After the brief war between Albanians and Macedonians ended in 2001 with the signing of the Ohrid Agreement, DUI, the largest ethnic Albanian political party, became a member of the ruling coalition.
The Albanian Union defeated DUI in Tetovo, a town mainly inhabited by Albanians. DUI has not yet commented, but the alliance has announced negotiations with Mickoski.
For the Western Balkans, political instability will be bad news, and North Macedonia is the focus of broader stability. During the war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic dared not attack the country, and the first US peacekeepers from the Balkans were deployed in Macedonia in 1993.
VMRO-DPMNE will undoubtedly play a nationalist game, attacking the Prespa agreement that solved the name problem with Greece for nearly two years in 2018. However, looking at NATO, Washington and the European Union, Mikowski is unlikely to try to change the terms of the agreement.
Another possible problem is the close relationship between VMRO-DPMNE and Hungary’s ruling Fidesz. Former VMRO leader Nikola Gruevski (Nikola Gruevski) lives in the place where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán provided him with asylum. The two parties have the same political and ideological views. . These may affect Skopje’s already precarious road to EU integration.
There is no doubt that Turkey will try to exert influence on Mikowski and try to establish a NATO alliance against Greece. There are Turkish minorities in North Macedonia, and the two countries have close economic relations.
Due to the blockade of EU negotiations, VMRO-DPMNE may also play a nationalist card against Bulgaria. With Mikowski becoming prime minister, a more radical policy towards Sofia can be expected, which will only strengthen Sofia’s veto power.
Another issue worthy of attention is VMRO-DPMNE’s position on Russia. Under Gruyevsky’s leadership, cooperation is very strong.
[Edited by Alice Taylor]
