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Why 6 million settlement applications do not mean that 6 million EU citizens live in the UK | Brexit

Last week, the Ministry of the Interior announced 6 million applications received Regarding the EU settlement plan, some people have concluded that the number of Europeans living in the UK is almost double the previous estimate.

Some people on social media claim that this means that 9% of the UK’s 67 million people are now Europeans.

However, statisticians at the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) and the Oxford University Immigration Observatory said that the unusually high number of applications is not a measure of the population, and may include millions of people who currently do not live in the country.

The National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom stated that its “best estimate” is still 3.5 million EU and European Economic Area (EEA) citizens residing in the UK, which is closer to the original figure of 3 million for EU citizen campaign groups in 2016.

The National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom said that this number may include millions of people who do not live in the UK, who may purchase insurance against high visa costs in case they want to return to the UK in the future.

A Belgian national who grew up in the UK but left in 2018 told the Guardian that he applied only to ensure that he could continue to visit his mother visa-free.

“our The latest dataUsing information from the Annual Population Survey (APS) shows that by mid-2020, about 3.5 million EU citizens will be living in the UK, which is much smaller than the 6 million applications for the EU Settlement Program,” Deputy Director Jay Lindopp (Jay Lindop) said. ONS International Immigration Center’s post On the ONS website.

“The assumption that there are more EU nationals in the UK than previously estimated is based on the belief that the number of applicants for EU settlement programs now live and work in the UK. This is almost certainly not true.”

According to the rules of the settlement plan, EU citizens and those from Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein Switzerland that started living or studying in the UK before December 31, 2020 can apply.

Applicants who rely on the historic five-year qualification period to live abroad are also eligible for settled status, provided they are absent for no more than five years. Those who have been in the country for a short time can also apply from abroad.

On the eve of the application deadline, immigration lawyers in the city were scrambling to accept applications from EU citizens living in remote places, including Australia, because of their positions abroad.

Rob McNeil, deputy director of the Immigration Observatory, also pointed out that the program has been open for two years and may include many people who have left due to the pandemic, especially considering that the government has relaxed regulations on absenteeism and eligibility , Coronavirus disease.

“Anyone who lived here during that period, even for short-term residency, can apply,” he said, as long as their absence is within the prescribed period. “It doesn’t mean that they are here now or will never come back.”

This work from home Statistics show that 2.75 million people have obtained settled status, given to those who have been in the country for five years or more, and 2.28 million have obtained pre-settled status, which is the category of all people who have been in the country for less than five years.

The number of applications may also be exaggerated due to repeated applications and applications from non-EU spouses and family members who have the right to live with EU citizens in the UK under the old EU member state rules.

Since citizens of the European Union or the European Economic Area have never registered in the UK, the data relies on labor force surveys, passenger surveys and HMRC data, which show the working population and will be updated by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

However, the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom said that it will not get a more complete picture until the next labor force survey is released in September, which shows the nationality of the population.

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